Results for the first quarter, to be released by Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (Nasdaq: TEVA; TASE: TEVA) tomorrow, will reflect the first complete quarter to consolidate recently-acquired Barr's earnings as well.
IBI investment house analyst Natali Gotlieb says that the first two quarters of 2009 will be impacted by the expenses and one-time items related to the merger, so that the second half of the year will be stronger and Teva will benefit from more product launches.
Gotlieb expects Teva's multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone to reach $540 million sales in the first quarter. She sees first quarter sales rising 28% in the US to $400 million, and rising 24% to $140 million in Europe and the rest of the world. The analyst does not expect a generic version of the drug before 2011, and until then Teva will see stable revenue and high margins from the product.
Gotlieb also does not see much competition to Copaxone from Novartis's launch of Extavia, a generic version of Bayer Schering's multiple sclerosis drug Betaseron, as she notes, "The product was launched with a price tag that will be too high for healthcare providers looking to switch patients to generic versions of the drug."
The IBI analyst also sees blockbuster potential from Teva's Parkinson's disease treatment Azilect, predicting first quarter sales to reach $60 million. Following the 2008 release of results from the landmark ADAGIO study, which showed that Azilect can slow down the progression of the disease the first drug to be able to do so - Gotlieb says that healthcare providers have already begun increasing prescriptions of the drug, even before the FDA formally changes the indication of the drug.
Gotlieb quotes IMS data showing that new Azilect prescriptions increased 45% in February, 2009, compared with the corresponding month a year earlier. At the same time, Teva raised the price of Azilect 10%.
The analyst is not enthusiastic over Teva's generic business in the first quarter, but expects an increase in approvals for new generic products in the second half of 2009.
Gotlieb sees Teva's first quarter net profit reaching $636 million on $3.426 billion revenue, compared with consensus estimates of $3.42 billion revenue.
Shares in Teva closed on Friday at $44.16, giving it a market cap of $39.25 billion.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on May 4, 2009
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