US President Barack Obama is beginning to pay a political price for last Thursday's speech, when he said that an Israeli-Palestinian political settlement should be based on the 1967 border. Republicans are condemning the president, accusing him of being the greatest disaster for Israel since President Jimmy Carter. Some Jewish members of Congress have also joined the chorus of condemnation, although there are no signs of erosion in Obama's support among Jewish voters, who traditionally lean Democrat.
It is believed, which may be wishful thinking, that Obama will try to appease US Jews and Israel and minimize the political price he is paying at Sunday's speech to the American-Israel Political Action Committee (AIPAC) annual convention. During his previous speech to AIPAC in 2008, Obama, then the Democratic nominee for president, won stormy applause when he said that Jerusalem will continue to be the capital of Israel and remain undivided. He subsequently softened that position.
The question now is whether Obama will exploit tonight's speech to make a pro-Israeli gesture to counter his statement about the 1967 border. Some analysts believe that Obama knows that he should not anger Jewish voters too much, which could affect next year's presidential elections in key states with large Jewish populations, such as New York, Illinois, Florida, and California. Like every politician, Obama knows that he must not rely on any group of voters being in the Democratic Party's pocket.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's aides have hinted to White House officials that they expect Obama to make a stronger pro-Israeli speech to AIPAC. Administration officials, however, have made it clear that Obama will not repeat his unsettling statement about the borders.
Some Israeli and Jewish activists hope that Obama will take the opportunity to announce a visit to Israel in June. However, NBC White House correspondent Chuck Todd said that administration officials told him that there is little chance of such an announcement.
Obama will probably say that a return to the 1967 border is not mandatory, and that Israel has the option of a territorial swap to enable to maintain what it believes are defensible borders and to keep settlement blocs in the West Bank. Obama may also offer some carrots to Israel, such as an unequivocal statement that the problem of Palestinian refugees will not be settled at Israel's expense, or giving a green light for the positioning of IDF units along the Jordan River on the basis of negotiations with the Palestinians.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on May 22, 2011
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