A quarter of the public has not decided how to vote, were elections for the Knesset held today, according to a survey by the Rafi Smith Institute for "Globes" over the past week. The proportion of undecided voters rose by one third, to 24%, from 18% in the previous survey in November, indicating a sense of despair, dissatisfaction with all the current political parties, and hopes for a new torch-bearer.
The exclusion of women from the public sphere, legislation targeting the Supreme Court, attacks on the media and freedom of expression may be driving voters away from the coalition, but they are not going to the opposition. A quarter of the public is now sitting on the fence. The public may be waiting for a new political party, or maybe for a new political power that will offer clear answers on the partnership with the haredim (ultra-orthodox).
The political establishment is pointing to television host Yair Lapid, who is currently completing preparations for a new political party that he will head to run for the 19th Knesset. If there was thing on which every in the political establishment agreed, from Right to Left, this week, it was that the airing of a show about the girl from Beit Shemesh, Naama Margolis, which ignited a torch of secular protest, on the program of the man whose political ambitions have been well known for a long time, was no coincidence.
This is why the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, chaired by MK David Rotem (Israel Beiteinu), and with the approval of his boss, Minister of Foreign Affairs Avigdor Liberman, is expected to shortly approve a law for a cooling off period for journalists, otherwise known as the "Lapid Law", after the bill sat in the freezer for over 18 months.
Liberman, with his sensitive political antennae, has also come to realize that his support of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin harmed him even among many Russian supporters, and has begun to realize that a secular anti-haredi led by Lapid is liable eat away at his support among the Russian immigrant-based and very secular electorate, which has no sympathy for haredim, and does not like his political partnership with them.
Not a passing episode
"The people do not want hypocrisy, they do not want division, they want unity," said MK Ofir Akunis (Likud) in the conclusion of his speech to the Knesset plenum yesterday.
The results of the "Globes" survey suggest that Akunis, who may have coined the Likud's slogan for the next elections, knows what he is talking about. The dramatic events of recent weeks have not undermined the coalition. The Likud remains more or less stable, winning around 30 Knesset seats. Although it has weakened slightly, this is within the sampling error. A person analyzing the distribution of Knesset seats could conclude that the public is generally satisfied with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conduct.
The other parties lag far behind, below the 20-seat threshold. Kadima's campaign has not been able to rebuild its position, and it is trailing with 19 Knesset seats losing one seat to Meretz. The surge by new Labor Party chairwoman MK Shelly Yacimovitch during the primaries in the autumn has halted, and the party has 18 Knesset seats. On the other hand, anyone who thought that the Labor Party's surge was a passing phase is apparently wrong. Months have passed since the primaries, and Labor's strength is stable.
The figures belie assertions that Netanyahu wants early elections. On the basis of the current poll's distribution of Knesset seats, he will probably add few seats were elections held now. It's hard to imagine that he would go for elections if he has any doubts about the crushing of Kadima. So long as a knockout of Kadima is not a sure thing in the polls, the prime minister is unlikely to call for early elections.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on December 29, 2011
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2011