Iran must not obtain military nuclear capability, and the Free World, led by the US, must do everything necessary to ensure that Iran will not go nuclear. This is not just a vital Israeli interest; today, the leaders of the Free World understand that this is a vital interest of the entire international community.
The recent remarks by US President Barack Obama indicate that Iranian nuclear capability is also against the US national interest, and that the issue worries the entire international community. He added that the US has no "soft" policy towards Iran, i.e. the US is not preparing to deal with a nuclear Iran, but will prevent Iran from going nuclear.
US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta also showed determination when he said that if all diplomatic efforts to cause Iran to halt its nuclear activity failed, the US would act. To the best of my recollection, such strong words have never been said about US intentions to prevent Iranian nuclear capability.
The remarks show that the world's leaders now understand that a nuclear Iran is a threat to world peace.
Confirming Israel's claims
This was not always the case. In 2008, when I was a member of Knesset, I was sent with some of my colleagues to European countries to persuade their leaders that Iran was seeking a nuclear weapon, and that a nuclear Iran was a threat to Israel's existence and to world peace.
During our meetings, we showed that Iran was engaged in adapting nuclear warheads to its Shahab 3 ballistic missile, developing neutron triggers, and trying to achieve the necessary precision explosion in a dual hemisphere configuration. About 1,000 witnesses testified that Iran was engaged in developing a nuclear weapon.
Most of the meetings ended without us persuading them. Had the leaders of the Free World accepted Israel's assessments at that time, and instituted paralyzing sanctions against Iran, it is possible that there would be no need now to deal with the question whether to attack Iran's nuclear facilities.
The latest International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports and media reports that Iran is trying to develop neutron triggers confirm what Israel has been saying for years - Iran is lying, concealing, deceiving, and continuing its effort to develop a nuclear weapon. Many sanctions have already been imposed against a recalcitrant Iran, but it is not stopping; it is disobeying decisions by the UN and the IAEA, and it is continuing to enrich uranium.
The US, leading European countries, and other countries, have decided to impose an oil embargo on Iran and against the Central Bank of Iran. These sanctions, which are more biting than their predecessors, will only come into effect on July 1, 2012. It would have been better had they come into effect immediately, because they may have the power to persuade the Iranians to desist from developing a nuclear weapon, for which time is of the essence.
Will the diplomatic measures and sanctions work? That, we will only know when the sanctions come into effect. It is better to bring an end to Iran's nuclear program through sanctions, diplomacy, and disrupting the program. There is still time to review the effectiveness of these measures, but it is limited - and if the measures fail, then it will be necessary to take military action to seriously damage the Iranian program, and end or delay it.
The first to be hit in retaliation
In the absence of military action, after the failure of sanctions and diplomacy, Iran will march with sure steps to achieving nuclear weapons, and that will be an unacceptable and intolerable situation. The damage that will be caused to Israel and the world by a nuclear Iran will be far greater than the damage that will be caused to Israel if the US, or any other party, attacks Iran's nuclear facilities.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has reiterated that Israel should be wiped off the map, and there is no one in the world who can promise us that if the Iranians get the Bomb, they won't use it against us. Some people claim that a nuclear Iran would not dare to attack Israel, but what if they are wrong? Israel must not take such a dangerous gamble and become a hostage to a nuclear Iran.
Iran has international ambitions, which it currently advances through terrorism, the fostering of terrorist organizations, and the development of terrorist cells in many locations around the world. A nuclear Iran would be far more aggressive and dangerous, and it would have the ability to narrow Israel's security and diplomatic maneuvering room.
A nuclear arms race would begin in the Middle East, which would undermine the fragile regional stability, and nuclear arms could slip into the hands of terrorist organizations. All this ought to greatly worry the world's leaders.
The military option should be the last option, and it has a cost. Israel would be the first to suffer from Iranian retaliation. The Iranians would presumably activate Hamas and Hizbullah, and they would launch thousands of missiles at Israel. In such a case, Israel would have to respond with even greater force, and attack infrastructures in both Lebanon and Gaza in order to stop the attack against our citizens. But the price that we would pay following an attack against Iran's nuclear facilities would be far less than the price we would pay for a nuclear Iran.
The alliance between Israel and the US is a cornerstone of Israel's national security, and of our ability to deal with the threats and challenges that we face. Coordination with the US on the Iranian issue is critical, and it is hard to underestimate its importance. Stopping Iran's nuclear plans is a duty of the whole world, and I hope that the determined remarks by Obama and others reflect the Americans' true intentions, and that on the day the order is given, if and when diplomacy and sanctions fail, the American will actually act to stop Iran.
But if, Heaven forbid, it turns out that the US will not meet its commitment, then Israel will have to protect itself by itself.
The author is an IDF major general (res.) and former head of the Mossad
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on March 12, 2012
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2012