"Nochi Dankner must take tough decisions like Lev Leviev did. There's a strong chance that IDB will need a debt settlement," a top banker told "Globes" about the condition of Israel's largest conglomerate. Shares in IDB Holding Corp. Ltd. (TASE:IDBH), subsidiary Discount Investment Corporation (TASE: DISI), and its subsidiary Cellcom Israel Ltd. (NYSE:CEL; TASE:CEL) have been leading the TASE down in the past few days.
"Although Dankner has money, it's not enough. His problem is with the non-bank market, and this market is merciless," added the banker. "He has no moves left. Everyone smells blood, which is why it is not certain that he'll be able to sell assets for a good price. If I were Dankner, I'd grit my teeth and ask for a settlement, before one is forced on me."
IDB said in response, "The company has no plan or intention of reaching a debt settlement. The group's companies have large cash reserves, its portfolio is diverse, and includes companies that are inalienable assets of the Israeli economy. We have taken, and continue to take, important measures and business steps that will enrich the cash reserves of the group's companies. Everything is for the good of the shareholders and bondholders of the various companies."
The collapse in the value of IDB and its subsidiaries continued today, led by a 22.6% drop by Discount Investment and a 7.6% drop by Koor (in which Discount Investment owns 70%). IDB Holding fell 9.3% to NIS 18.69, giving it a market cap of just NIS 860 million.
At the same time, IDB's bond continue to lose value, and they are now priced at junk yields of up 72.8%. IDB Holding and subsidiary IDB Development Corporation's aggregate bond debt is NIS 6 billion.
There are several main reasons for the negative sentiment towards IDB, beginning with the plunge in value of telecommunications shares, Cellcom included, on the TASE, due to rising competition in the mobile market following the entry of new carriers HOT Mobile Ltd. and Golan Telecom Ltd., which are offering low-cost plans, forcing the established carriers to do the same.
In addition, there is the fall in the share price of Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE: CS; SWX: CSGN; XETRA: CSGZ), the main investment by Koor, which today fell another 0.9% on the Zurich Stock Exchange to CHF 18.91, after falling xx% from its peak in March. There is the dismal failure of the Plaza casino and hotel project in Las Vegas, which is now facing a debt settlement, as well as the declining results of many of IDB's companies, due to the economic slowdown and social protest - Shufersal Ltd. (TASE:SAE), Hadera Paper Ltd. (TASE: AIP; Pink Sheets: AIP), Ma'ariv Holdings Ltd. (TASE: MARV-M), and others.
Midroog toes the line
Yesterday, Midroog Ltd. added fuel to the fire by downgrading the bonds of Discount Investment by two notches to A3, and putting the A2-rated bonds of Koor onto the watchlist with a "Negative" outlook. The move came after the yields on the bonds rose over 10%, and the yield on Discount Investment's bonds reached 15%.
Several days ago, Standard & Poor's Maalot Ltd. downgraded IDB companies, after the rating company delayed in reacting to the pricing of the companies and the market climate. Maalot downgraded IDB Holding's bonds by three notches to BBB minus, and downgraded IDB Development's bonds by one notch to BBB+. Maalot reiterated its A minus rating (which corresponds to Midroog's A3 rating) for Discount Investment, Koor, and Clal Industries and Investments Ltd. (TASE: CII) and reiterated its "Negative" outlook for all five companies.
Koor bonds fell 3.2% today, and their yields reached 12.7%. Discount Investment bonds fell by 8.3%, their yields rose up to 19.1%. The aggregate debt on Discount Investment's five bonds is NIS 5.2 billion, of which it has to repay NIS 1 billion by the end of 2012 (not including NIS 135 million owed to the banks), while the company had NIS 1.3 billion in cash at the end of 2011.
Koor owes its bondholders NIS 2 billion, of which it is due to repay NIS 450 million this year. It has NIS 2.5 billion in cash.
It should be noted that, yesterday, Discount Investment and Koor announced that they were considering revising the structure of their merger to increase the proportion of Koor bonds that would be purchased as part of the merger. They also announced that Midroog was planning to review its rating for Discount Investment's bonds, as Koor had previously reported in its financial report for the first quarter of 2012.
Midroog cited "the company's weakening liquidity in view of the weakening of its main sources of dividends and the drop in the market caps of investments as the reason for the downgrade of Discount Investment." Midroog was referring to Cellcom, whose share price has fallen 44% since the beginning of the year, Shufersal, which was hit by the social protest, and to the drop in value of the Plaza project in Las Vegas (half of which is held by IDB Development and subsidiary Property and Building Ltd. (TASE: PTBL)). "The drop in market cap of the holdings has increased their leverage ratios, despite the reduction in the financial debts of Discount Investment and Koor. Discount Investment's leverage ratio was 85%, and Koor's was 68% in January," says Midroog.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on May 17, 2012
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2012