Behind the arguments over the highest principles and most deeply-held values lie, in the end, trivial numbers; so the protocols of the Tzemach committee on gas exports demonstrate today once more.
The great debate between the members of the committee over exporting natural gas boiled down to a few percentage points this way or that: 40 BCM more, 30 BCM less. Or to look at it another way, the question of how much gas to allow for export comes down to an estimate of no more than 10-12 more years of gas for the Israeli economy, if gas exports are completely forbidden. If Israel allows unrestricted exports of gas, the economy will start to suffer from a shortage around 2047. If no exports are allowed at all, the economy will have enough gas to last until around 2058. If the middle path proposed by the Tzemach committee is adopted, the gas will run out around 2050. If we allow ourselves to be a little cynical for a moment, then it can be said that the reason that the government has been dragging its feet for nearly a year is the issue of principle, so terribly important for our future, of what will happen here between January 2049 and December 2051. On the political plane, of course, the fight over the gas looks much more important and relevant.
The public pressure, and the campaign waged by the opponents of gas exports, have managed to deter Minister of Energy and Water Resources Silvan Shalom from making a decision. In his meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Shalom presented several possible scenarios for a government decision on gas exports. Shalom described at length who the opponents and who the supporters were for each of his scenarios. Netanyahu tried to understand from Shalom what the minister's own stance was, but failed.
In the Prime Minister's Office they are convinced that Shalom is trying to do everything he can to hand off this hot potato to Netanyahu. But the prime minister is neither willing nor able to propose a resolution of his own on the matter to the government without eliciting the minister's view. Neither the minister of finance nor the minister of the economy has any intention of pulling Shalom's chestnuts out of the fire for him, and so far the only government minister to have taken a clear stance is Minister of the Environment Amir Peretz.
Peretz demands that the amount of gas safeguarded for the needs of the local economy should be raised to 600 BCM. This is an upping of the ante by the Ministry of the Environment, which until recently would have been satisfied with 550 BCM. Given the leadership vacuum in the relevant ministries, only pragmatism is preventing Peretz from continuing to raise the amount to the point at which there wil be no gas exports at all.
Meanwhile, the developers are starting to realize that the game has got out of control. The only way forward that makes sense from their point of view is to start to establish facts on the ground. To close gas export agreements with Jordan, Turkey, and the Palestinian Authority. They have reason to believe that the feebleness demonstrated by the present government over energy policy means that it won't stand in their way.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on June 5, 2013
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