Citi Research has initiated coverage of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (NYSE: TEVA; TASE: TEVA) with a "Buy" recommendation and target price of $47. Citi analyst Liav Abraham says that if Teva overcomes the expiration of Copaxone's patents, the share price could reach $60.
"We see the potential for value to be unlocked over the next 12 months as investors look past the Copaxone cliff, and focus on the growth profile of the company’s ex-Copaxone franchises, " says Abraham, adding that Teva has growth potential because of the steps it has taken.
In Abraham's bear case scenario, in which the company fails to overcome the hurdle of the decline in sales of Copaxone, its flagship product, the patents on which will expire in a few months, the valuation is $35. In her bull case scenario, on the other hand, the stock price could jump as high as $60.
"Investors should consider Teva’s growth profile in two parts: Copaxone and ex-Copaxone," Abraham writes. "We forecast a decline in Copaxone earnings per share from $2.96 in 2013 to $0.58 by 2018; however, we estimate that earnings for the rest of the business will grow at a 19% five-year CAGR. Teva has no single “blockbuster” product in its pipeline that will replace Copaxone, however the upside from its respiratory pipeline ($550 million in revenue by 2018e), NTE (new therapeutic entities) portfolio, and over-the-counter franchise are underappreciated by the market."
Abraham gives Teva a "Buy" recommendation and 12-month target price of $47 on the basis of an earnings multiple of 9.4 in 2014, reflecting a discount of 25% compared with the company's peers.
Teva's share price closed at $41.70 on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, giving a market cap of $35.2 billion.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on October 27, 2013
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