On the eve of Simchat Torah, the last 20 surviving hostages remaining in Hamas captivity were returned to Israel. Israelis rejoiced and danced with them, but Dr. Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, believes that in addition to joy, a natural and healthy reaction, we should also pay attention to the additional points in US President Donald Trump's 20-point peace plan.
He says, "You must understand that Hamas, as an Islamic jihadist movement, will not voluntarily lay down its arms because that would be tantamount to erasing its identity." The only possibility, he said, is for the IDF to make it do so. "Anyone who thinks that soldiers from the Gulf states or any other Arab country will fight against Hamas terrorists is living in another universe."
Diker adds, "If Trump does not put all his weight behind protecting Israel's right to enforce implementation of the plan, there is reasonable cause for concern that the 20-point plan will be just a hostage release deal."
Okay, and what does that actually mean?
"In this scenario, which is not unlikely, Israel will probably hold the territories in Gaza that it controls even after its withdrawal to the agreed-upon Yellow Line. Hamas rule will continue in one form or another, and that organization will remain armed and in territorial control. In short, it is reasonable to assume that in such a case, Hamas will reconstitute itself.
"On the other hand, there is a fundamental concern that Israel may be bound by the plan, and will not be able to respond to Hamas' violations. It can be assumed that these violations will begin escalating operations in increments: incendiary balloons, ‘accidental’ single rocket launches, sniper fire, and the like. In none of these scenarios will Hamas necessarily cross the threshold that would allow Israel to respond legitimately from an international perspective. At the same time, it will continue to rebuild himself, while not crossing the threshold that would bring it back into the war."
As an example, Diker says, "Already today, there were reports that Hamas is firing light artillery at its political opponents inside the Gaza Strip, in order to demonstrate to the residents that it controls the territory. Israel, on the other hand, controls the Philadelphi corridor, which is essential, but is not involved in checking the entry of humanitarian aid through Rafah. Therefore, based on not-so-distant history, weapons and prohibited goods will come in."
How do you think Israel will react when it is already clear that Hamas is not going to abide by the deal?
"It’s unclear how it will respond, for example, to the attempt to overwhelm Khan Yunis and Rafah with mass civilian marches encouraged by Hamas, aimed at infiltrating areas under Israeli control and harming or kidnapping soldiers. This may force a situation where it has no choice. If Israel escalates, it will provoke the wrath of the US, while the second option is not to respond and eventually withdraw forces unilaterally to better lines of defense. Ans so it will be until we find ourselves under enormous pressure to leave the Gaza Strip altogether, which is unacceptable to the decision makers and the border region residents."
"American support is essential to achieving total victory"
When it comes to the IDF's position and Israel's perception of reality, Diker expresses considerable concern. "There is a reasonable scenario in which, in some respects, we Israelis go back to what we were on October 6, only with better safeguards, for a while. We have damaged the terrorist organization’s capabilities, but if we do not take care to preserve these achievements, many dangers could return.
"US support for the implementation of the second phase is essential to achieving a total victory. If there is no backing to do what is required, then we could say there is no victory. In this case, enormous pressure will be exerted on Israel to stop at this point, which will make it easier for Hamas to continue terrorist activities and make it difficult for Israel to respond militarily."
You attended Trump's speech in the Knesset. What did you learn?
"That speech was a classic Trump. Lots of informal stories and a combination of serious messages and humor. I felt that it illustrated his affection for the people of Israel and, of course, for the State of Israel. There is something interesting that is worth dwelling on, and that is Trump's statement to [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu that Yair Lapid is a "good man." In my opinion, this is a subtle hint that the president would like to see a national unity government after the elections."
And what message was he trying to convey regarding the ceasefire in Gaza and the future of the entire region?
"Both Trump and Netanyahu agreed in their speeches that real peace can only be achieved through strength, especially in the Middle East. The president sees the region moving toward peace and stability, with the economic worldview that drives his foreign policy. Trump believes that through economic interests and mutual investments, he will succeed in doing what no president has been able to do before: unite Arab and Muslim countries in signing and guaranteeing his 20-point plan."
Given the Netanyahu and Trump speeches, do you think there is a gap between the two countries regarding the future of the Gaza plan?
"As far as Trump is concerned, and I heard him say it with my own ears in the corridors of the Knesset, the war ended with an exclamation point. He also clarified that the second phase must begin immediately, noting that Hamas has not yet fulfilled its commitment to return the dead hostages. Netanyahu, on the other hand, has said in recent days that the plan is not yet complete, indicating that Israel expects to carry out the plan in its entirety, which includes disarming Hamas and demilitarizing the Gaza Strip."
After his speech, Trump flew to Egypt to meet with many Middle Eastern leaders, inviting Netanyahu to fly with him, but the Prime Minister's Office said he would not join due to the Simchat Torah holiday. Incidentally, in Turkey, it was reported that Turkey’s President Erdogan would refuse to land in Egypt if Netanyahu participated in the conference. What do you think of this saga?
"It's a bit worrying that Erdogan boycotted Netanyahu so blatantly because he is one of the two guarantors of a deal by Hamas on the implementation of Phase 2. In addition, there is something we should pay attention to: [Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud] Abbas received legitimacy from the world by his very presence at the meeting with the US president and leaders from all over the world, while Israel was not present at all. But it's also classic Trump - to let Abbas feel that he has the respect of the US, and at the same time support the Israeli position that another terrorist state will not be established in Judea and Samaria."
"There are many obstacles along the way. Many of the dangers may return."
When I ask Diker about winning this war, he predicates his answer on the peace plan’s continuation. "This agreement could be our victory or Hamas’. If it does stop here, if there is no second stage and if Israel does not receive US backing to enforce the continued implementation of the Trump plan, then Hamas has won. If we can get backing to enforce the deal’s implementation, then Israel wins. It’s certainly possible, but there are many obstacles along the way, and it's not a given."
Hamas agreed in principle to a plan that ultimately calls for the disarmament and demilitarization of the Gaza Strip. And now, senior Hamas official Bassem Naim said on Saturday night that the organization does not intend to do so. So, why did he sign?
First of all, in the Arab and Islamic world, written agreements are not worth much. Such organizations act according to interests of the moment. I say that Hamas, together with Turkey and Qatar - the two sponsors of the Muslim Brotherhood - have plans for its continued survival. Turkey and Qatar are determined to continue supporting Hamas behind the scenes and restore its rule, preferring to build it up at the expense of the Palestinian Authority. This is a jihadist organization that lives solely to destroy its enemies: the State of Israel and the Jewish people. So, in my opinion, there is a clash here between the good and objective intentions that are written in the 20-point plan and the way the terrorist organization and its supporters interpret them.
"Proves it's worth kidnapping - not just Israelis"
Diker has been the head of the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs and Security Affairs since late 2022, after years serving as a senior researcher and head of a project to deal with Israel's delegitimization. He specializes in strategic analysis of Israel-US relations, Palestinian terror threats, and relations between Israel and the Jewish Diaspora. Diker previously served as Secretary General of the World Jewish Congress and in senior management positions at research institutions and international organizations. He is well known in Washington DC and has extensive connections in Congress. He has also appeared as a commentator on Israel and the Middle East on a series of news channels around the world. As part of his work, he also meets with Prime Minister Netanyahu from time to time regarding media matters and messages to the international public.
Netanyahu talked a lot about total victory. Can we say that it won't happen?
"He has said many times in the past two years that a complete victory means disarming Hamas, moving them out of Gaza, and bringing in a government other than the Palestinian Authority or Hamas. In addition, it was said that a total victory meant that Israel would be responsible for Gaza's security, meaning a 1.5-3.5 kilometer security buffer zone and a presence at the Philadelphi corridor to stop arms transfers from Egypt. In addition, Minister [for Strategic Affairs] Ron Dermer insisted that action must be taken to significantly de-radicalize the Gaza Strip residents. This was indeed included in the 20-point plan, but it’s unclear how it will be executed in practice."
From a strategic perspective, looking at our overall situation in the region, how will we know if we’ve won or not?
"The main strategic campaign of victory and defeat will be determined not in Gaza, but in the broader region. Israel's victory will be determined by what happens in Tehran and Turkey's conduct in Syria. Recently, Egypt has also become a worry. The most urgent thing right now is immediate operational action to achieve victory in these regional arenas, establish optimal lines of defense and buffer zones in Syria and Lebanon, in response to a possible threat from Egypt.
"The developments also correspond with Trump's mandate, his declared intention to end all wars, and his work towards realizing his vision of the Middle East, which includes economic prosperity, stability, and regional security."
Israel is already releasing hundreds of murderous terrorists. Many on the Israeli right warn that this mass release incentivizes future terror attacks. Do you think that's correct?
"Israel released more than 1,000 terrorists in exchange for Gilad Shalit; even then it was an incentive. Hamas invaded Israel in a more cruel and grotesque way than the Nazis. At this point, they say to their followers, ‘See, terrorism pays off. We sacrificed, we were martyred, but we twisted the Jews’ arms and they released thousands of terrorists.’
"This is a great incentive not only for Hamas, but for every jihadist organization in the world. I think this will boomerang on Europe as well. We can assume there will be kidnappings there because now all the jihadists have gotten an energy boost. This is total victory as far as they are concerned, it is an international victory for their collective consciousness. They managed to recruit quite a few of the most important countries in the West against Israel and prove that hostage taking is worthwhile - and not just of Israelis."
"Trump told Qatar: I'm protecting you, now bring the deal"
Diker believes that the attack in Qatar was one element that brought the deal to fruition. "The Qataris, despite all the spin, are afraid of Netanyahu. They never dreamed that Israel would dare attack the Hamas leadership on their soil. The message was unequivocal: Israel has gone crazy and is breaking all the rules. And even though Israel made some sort of apology as a prerequisite for this deal, Qatar and Turkey understand that Israel does not limit itself geographically in its pursuit of terror against it and its interests."
Aren't you suspicious of the presidential order Trump gave Qatar?
"It's really interesting, because it seems clear to me that Israel wouldn't have done what it did in Qatar without informing Trump, and he acted in a very sophisticated way. He allowed the attack to go ahead, or at least he didn't oppose it, and then he tells the Qataris, 'I'm protecting you.' In return, he demands, ‘Bring Hamas to the deal,' but in practice, I'm not sure it really means anything."
In recent months, there have been endless leaks about tensions between Netanyahu and Trump. How true is that?
"There is media reality and there is objective reality. Both the prime minister and the president are people with strong and unequivocal opinions. Let's remember that Netanyahu is the only leader to have been to the White House four times in the nine months of Trump's second term.
"Netanyahu has another secret weapon in his good relations with Trump, and he's called Ron Dermer. The president has great admiration for Dermer; they are both graduates of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and their chemistry was good when they met in 2014 and continues to be. So, I'm sure that the relationship between Netanyahu and Trump is strong, and even stronger because of Dermer's involvement.
"It is clear that between two strong and determined people, there are sometimes disagreements on the tactical level, arguments and even raised voices. It's okay, it happens, but the connection is close."
Polls in the US indicate that Israel is losing support among the American public at an alarming rate.
"This is the plan’s 21st point to ensure true victory: bringing back former supporters from around the world. As for the US, the polls are really worrying because over the years Israel had gained high levels of sympathy among Americans. There is a phenomenon here of young Americans falling into an abyss of progressive propaganda that blames the strong and identifies with the weak in any situation. There is disinformation. We must activate a new type of army that will fight in the social networks and wherever else lies are spread. It's no less dangerous than Palestinian terror in the streets.
"The second thing that needs to be done is to reach out and recruit the 650 million Christians, supporters of the State of Israel, and other non-Jewish Zionists from the seven continents. To achieve the total victory that Israel has promised itself, we must win on the military battlefield, but just as importantly, in the global collective consciousness, too."
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on October 28, 2025.
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