The Trump administration’s approval to sell F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia carries two extremely negative security implications for Israel, regardless of the issue of normalization: a significant erosion of Israel’s qualitative military advantage, and a regional arms race.
Israel is the only country in the region that possesses F-35 jets. Turkey was removed from the program in 2019 due to US sanctions, after its insistence on buying S-400 missile systems from Russia. Now, even though there is no understanding about normalization with Israel, US President Donald Trump has said he wants to sell F-35s to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. And if that was not ominous enough, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has said Trump wants to sell his country F-35s. There are reasons to fear that the US administration will work to change legislation in Congress that would allow the sale of advanced aircraft to Turkey too.
Added to this Israel is concerned about Qatar's close relationship with Trump. Qatar is home to Al Udeid, the largest US air force base outside the US. Qatar gifted the US president a new Air Force One and it already operates high-quality US fighter jets such as the F-15. It may be impossible for Washington to tell Qatar, "The Saudis got them, but you won’t."
All this is likely to infuriate the UAE, which created the Abraham Accords in 2020 and despite a pledge to be the first Muslim country with the F-35, it remains without such a deal to this day.
This puts Trump in a situation where there are two options: sell the UAE F-35 aircraft as well, or they will distance themselves from him and move even closer to China. In general, one of Washington's biggest challenges, which also greatly influences their policies towards Riyadh, is the close relationship of the Gulf states - including the moderate Sunni Arab states - with China.
Delivery in 2032 but loss of the advantage here and now
Although the F-35 sale will only bring the planes to Riyadh in 2031-2032, it is no different from a situation in which Israel had procured the planes. These are the long delivery times that arise from the in-demand Lockheed Martin products. Signing such an agreement is the end of Israel's qualitative military advantage here and now.
Israel must now seek compensation in other ways. A memorandum of understanding (MoU) on aid funds from the US beyond 2028 has not yet been signed. The current MoU, signed in 2016 by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with then US President Barack Obama, promises Israel an annual US procurement of $3.3 billion and an additional $500 million for cooperation in the field of air defense - the highest aid amount ever.
Israel is already facing a challenge arising from the conversion clause of the MoU: the ability to convert part of the annual grant into shekels for use with Israel’s defense industries. At the start of the agreement, the conversion clause was $815.3 million (24.7% of the procurement budget), but it pledged a consistent reduction to redirect investment to the US defense industry. The most significant step is taking place this year: from a conversion budget of $725.3 million (21.9%), there has been a drop that is anchored in the agreement to $450.3 million (about 13.6%). Next year there will be a further drop to $250.3 million (about 7.5%), and an amount similar to that in 2027. In the last year of the memorandum of understanding, 2028, the conversion clause will be zero.
A new MoU is expected to be signed next year, and even more so in the current situation, Israel cannot afford a zero conversion clause. Israeli defense industries need procurement for R&D. It is unlikely that we will see, for example, Israeli-made fifth-generation aircraft in the foreseeable future, but as reflected in the operation against Iran, Israel has a great advantage in drones. Unlike other countries in the Middle East, Israel will not turn to China and Russia at the expense of the US, while Washington is Israel's ally, China and Russia are arming its biggest enemies all the time.
Israel does not serve Trump
The average Israeli's disappointment with Trump's move is understandable and stems from a mistaken political perception that is transmitted by Israel’s government. The US president is the president of the US, not the president of the State of Israel. He cares about the interests of his country - America First - and there are situations - especially in its current conduct - in which Israel really does not serve him. Israel’s inability to defeat Hamas has sent a problematic message to the moderate Sunni countries, and Israel’s lack of a political horizon on the Palestinian issue is distancing normalization with Saudi Arabia. Therefore, Trump, as a businessman, does business anyway.
The "path to a Palestinian state" that is anchored in the US proposal for Gaza that was approved by the UN Security Council is part of both Trump's business and his attempts to find a way to promote Israeli-Saudi normalization, one that is expected to lead to an explosion of regional normalizations and a Nobel Peace Prize for the US President. The Saudi Crown Prince’s "payment" for the F-35s may be a vague verbal statement that "We will advance normalization while advancing the path to a Palestinian state," but that would not be worth the price for Israel of supplying the Saudis with F-35s.
In short, the only gain for Israel would offset the US sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia is normalization with the leader of the Sunni world. This would finally break the circle of silence and stealth surrounding Israel’s covert relations with some members of the Muslim world. Other significant Muslim countries would seize on the Trump move to establish ties with Israel, which would benefit while Iran would become isolated. Any other situation would be a colossal strategic-political failure for the State of Israel, after a strategic-security failure on October 7.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on November 18, 2025.
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