The Israeli security cabinet has considered toppling Hamas rule and reoccupying the Gaza Strip more than once in recent weeks. It was being raised as a real possibility, not just a momentary whim, and was discussed for many hours with all of its implications. The best experts in the defense establishment were invited to express their opinions at the meetings. As of web posting, the Israeli government prefers the diplomatic option. It is seeking to build on the shock and horror it has inflicted on Hamas to leave it in place, and to impose a situation that will make the tranquility of the Israelis living near the Gaza Strip a supreme interest also for Hamas political chairman Khaled Mashal.
Nevertheless, a scenario of destroying Hamas rule still amuses Israeli politicians and talk-back contributors, who sometimes seem to be the same thing. They are also ignoring the fact that killing Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif; arresting or killing Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh; and eliminating any official trace of Hamas sovereignty in the Gaza Strip is only the beginning. As soon as Gaza is in the hands of the IDF, the hard part begins.
We have not yet been convinced that the Israeli leadership has the experience, judgment, and endurance to successfully carry out this task. Israel will find itself facing 1.8 million Palestinians with personal accounts to settle.
Anyone who finds it difficult to accept this, and still believes that IDF soldiers will be welcomed with flowers and kisses should take a look at Arab and Western TV broadcasts, which show images that viewers in Israel are being spared. Innocent civilians are being unintentionally killed by IDF fire. Ruined streets and family members screaming about the death of their loved ones are Israel's calling card at this time.
The IDF has an explanation for its policy of destruction, which it blames on the cruel habit by the armed men of Hamas and other factions of fighting from residential areas. Israelis and some of its allies find this argument persuasive. It is cold and calculating, and has real validity in UN discussions and legal campaigns, but not for someone who has lost four of his grandchildren, a child who has lost her parents, and a father who is mourning his pregnant wife. Israel will have to get this population on its side if it embarks on a campaign to replace Hamas. "You've acquired many years of hatred," a young Gazan woman told me.
The second challenge is who will replace Hamas. Abu Mazen? It is doubtful whether there is another option around. It would be ironic if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who insulted the Palestinian leader for years by refusing to regard him as a partner, needed his services on the day after. It is already ironic now to see how Abu Mazen has in recent weeks led the mediation efforts with Hamas in the service of Israel also, after the prime minister's concentrated attack on him because of his imaginary reconciliation with Hamas.
And who can imagine that Abu Mazen would want this legacy? Why should he agree to return on the bayonets of a foreign army to a territory that kicked him out? The Palestinian Authority (PA) enjoys international support and benefits from the status quo with Israel, making it the envy of its Gazan brothers. Returning to Gaza will indeed close the account opened between Hamas and Fatah by the military coup seven years ago.
Abu Mazen, however, is no longer young (he is approaching 80), and the PA is relatively stable. He may very well decide that he has no desire for the rats nest called Gaza. It is better for him to act like his Egyptian friends, who are watching Israel bleed against the monster they created, which from time to time cries out for their help.
Even if the PA wants the sweet revenge of seeing Hamas fall and returning to the Gaza Strip in triumph, both it and Israel will face the biggest problem of all. The US has learned this the hard way in Iraq by overthrowing Saddam Hussein and recommending who should replace him. They acquired a bitter enemy almost overnight - the old regime and all those who benefited from it.
In Iraq, they numbered several million. In Gaza, they are only in the tens of thousands, but there are enough of them to give Israel a hard time. Some of them are members of the military wing of Hamas and other factions. They have experience in terrorism, sniping, and guerilla warfare, and they enjoy access to weapons stores and ammunition. Add to that an enormous motivation to attack the IDF, the support of part of the population, and you have army of suicide terrorists ready for battle.
The thoughts of cabinet ministers about occupying Gaza, and the seriousness with which they directed representatives of the defense establishment to consider that scenario, are the result of a lack of basic knowledge about what is going on in Gaza, and the emotional tendency to use disproportionate force. These intentions are shortsighted. They indicate that the government contains ministers who have trouble formulating a simple political and security scenario of what we will face as soon as the shots ring out.
The author is the Arab affairs correspondent for “IDF Radio" (Galei Zahal).
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on August 3, 2014
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