Over the past two weeks Iran has been rocked by the biggest demonstrations since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The unrest began as an economic protest but rapidly transformed into an uprising that has shaken the foundations of the regime. According to human rights organizations, thousands of demonstrators have been indiscriminately killed and tens of thousands arrested throughout the country in a crackdown on the protests by the Iranian police with widespread live fire and brutal violence. At the same time the Internet has been shut down and the media silenced.
US President Donald Trump has spoken out harshly against the Iranian regime and called on demonstrators to continue their protests and said that ‘help is on the way," while warning the Iranian leadership not to proceed with executions of protestors or to escalate the violence, otherwise the US "will take very strong action." Trump has cancelled talks with Iranian representatives and imposed a 25% tariff on all countries trading with Iran to increase the pressure on the Iranian regime.
"Globes" spoke to Prof. Kobi Michael, senior researcher at Tel Aviv University Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) to understand the possible scenarios in Iran, Israel’s position on the matter and what concerns the Arab world.
Prof. Michael, at this stage what are the more reasonable scenarios that we might have to confront soon?
"There are several scenarios at the moment. I don't know what is 'likely' because we don't know what is going on in President Trump's head or what is going on in Supreme Leader Khamenei's head. But given that, the first scenario, which is perhaps the most likely one right now, is that the regime will succeed in suppressing these demonstrations. That doesn't mean that it will succeed in suppressing the motivation or will succeed in eliminating the infrastructure for a renewed outbreak of protests because the situation in Iran is very difficult and there doesn't seem to be a positive horizon. But as we see things right now, with the level of violence and murder by which they are handling the protest, and there was probably a decrease in the scale of the protests yesterday, it is a likely scenario that they will succeed in suppressing it.
"The second scenario is that the protests will continue to fuel the streets with varying intensity for a very long time and will tire out the regime and create opportunities for external intervention that will lead to the exhaustion of the regime and perhaps its overthrow. It should be remembered in this context that the fall of the Shah in 1979 was after a year of protests, so we are currently only about three weeks into the protests and if this continues, it could certainly create momentum here that would also invite external intervention.
"The third scenario is that Trump really means what he says and his threats are not just threats intended to deter the Iranian regime, and we will see US intervention. Then there is a split here into sub-scenarios that depend on the type of US intervention. Will this be an intervention at the level of a cybersecurity operation or an operation to influence the situation, and here I think the result will be quite limited. It will not produce any dramatic development. But if he decides to strike with power, will it be symbolic or will it be significant, if such a thing happens, at the temperature that exists today in Iran, with the psychological infrastructure that exists today among Iranians, the damage to the regime could certainly encourage the protest or achieve the protest's goals."
At least at this stage the US is not moving forces to the region. Why is this happening in your opinion?
"We don't really know. There are a lot of reports of all kinds of air movements. We also have to remember that the US already has a lot of forces in the region. Although aircraft carriers are not here right now and there may be some aircraft carrier on its way, the US has the huge Al-Udeid air base in Qatar and they also have additional forces. It is certainly possible that there is some kind of move here that Trump is planning together with Israel and is building on Israeli military capability that closes the time window needed to organize to move aircraft carriers. But I think Trump is also listening to the warnings of senior US military officials, and they are reluctant to enter into this move now because they estimate that there will be an Iranian response in areas that are vulnerable to the US here. It is also possible that they need to improve the protection of US assets in the region.
"I think that we do ultimately see some kind of organization. By the way, moving forces does not necessarily mean that forces will be used. It could also be an element designed to deter the Iranians."
How does Israel see what is happening and what is it actually doing?
"Israel is treating these events with great caution. It understands very well that it is not right for it to intervene at this time or to exploit the regime's distress to attack Iran. The reasons are clear. It would not be right for Israel to act in Iran at this time in a way that would be interpreted as its attempt to overthrow the regime through a military attack that is supposed to help the protest or join the protest. The US is not doing this yet, if it does and asks for Israel's help, that is something else entirely. We are under the US umbrella.
But Israel will not remain only on the defensive, it will also respond if necessary, and I assume that in such a case it will be together with the US and with a fairly high probability with the intention of ultimately bringing about the overthrow of the regime."
How does all this affect the Arab countries?
"Arab countries are under very heavy pressure on this matter. They are very afraid of an Iranian attack. "I'm talking mainly about Saudi Arabia, but it seems to me that the UAE also shares this concern, and to some extent Qatar as well. Although Qatar is an Arab country with the best relations with Iran, and I assume that Iran will be cautious about attacking Qatar and would focus on the US Al Oded base. But they are still afraid of this matter because they are afraid that then there will be an American response and then things could deteriorate. Egypt and Saudi Arabia and non-Arab countries like Turkey really don't like this idea. We have to remember that Turkey has significant economic ties with Iran and Turkey is economically concerned."
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on January 14, 2026.
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