A joint list starring Labor leader Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni, leader of Hatenuah, could be the largest party after the coming Knesset election. According to a poll by the Rafi Smith Institute conducted after the decision to bring the elections forward, a joint list with Herzog number one and Livni number two boosts the number of seats won by Labor to 24, making it larger than Likud. This still does not represent a threat to Benjamin Netanyahu's hold on power, but it does indicate the potential of an anti-Netanyahu block that seeks to replace talk of Iran and IS with two states for two peoples and a partner for peace.
A combination of Labor, for which the poll currently projects 15 seats, and Livni, whose party on current showing will not even gain the minimum vote required for representation in the Knesset, would not only bring an extra nine seats, according to the poll, but would also boost the motivation of center-left voters to vote, which could bring a surprise at the election. Herzog and Livni, who are on their way to the Saban Conference in Washington, will certainly have a great deal to talk to each other about.
Liberman the key
Behind Netanyahu's dramatic move in calling an election lies the magic number 50. In order for him not to have to call the removers to the prime ministerial residence on Jerusalem's Balfour Street on March 18, the Netanyahu-Naftali Bennett-haredim block has to number at least 50 seats. Netanyahu and Minister of National Infrastructures, Energy and Water Silvan Shalom, with whom he has become closer recently, have come to the conclusion that as long as the Arab parties gain eleven seats between them, the anti-Netanyahu block will be incapable of forming a coalition, and Netanyahu will win a fourth term.
The key to the outcome will be Minister of Foreign Affairs Avigdor Liberman. Liberman has never concealed his desire to be prime minister, but he has become fed up of waiting. He didn't dream that there would be an election now, but as soon as his attempts to unseat Netanyahu in the present Knesset came unstuck, he realized that there was a chance that elections were at hand, and so started to move to the center. That explains his peace plan published in "Yediot Ahronot". It's too early to say what the political map will look like after March 17, but there is no doubt that Liberman will be the most important key to forming a coalition. His Yisrael Beitenu party is the only one that can join either side, Netanyahu's or Herzog's, without its constituency feeling betrayed. He could be the right wing of a centrist coalition, or Netanyahu's insurance policy in a right-wing coalition. And in both eventualities he could demand rotation of the prime ministerial role. Both Herzog and Netanyahu will pay him any price just for a slice of the premiership, regardless of how many seats Yisrael Beitenu actually wins.
Poll results
If a joint list headed by Herzog and Livni ran in the election, for which party would you vote?
Likud 23
Yisrael Beitenu 10
Yesh Atid 7
Labor 24
Habayit Hayehudi 16
Shas 9
United Torah Judaism 7
Meretz 5
New party under Moshe Kahlon 9
Hadash 5
Ra'am-Ta'al 3
National Democratic Assembly 3
Poll results
If the election were held today with Herzog and Livni running separately, for which party would you vote?
(Results in terms of Knesset seats, first the current poll, conducted on December 3, followed by the result of the November 26 poll, and, in parentheses, the number of seats in the current Knesset).
Likud 23, 23 (31)
Yisrael Beitenu 10, 11 (-)
Yesh Atid 10, 10 (19)
Labor 15, 15 (15)
Habayit Hayehudi 16, 16 (12)
Shas 9, 7 (11)
United Torah Judaism 7, 7 (7)
Hatenuah 2, 0 (6)
Meretz 7, 8 (6)
New party under Moshe Kahlon 10, 9 (-)
Hadash 5, 5 (4)
Ra'am-Ta'al 3, 3 (4)
National Democratic Assembly 3, 3 (3)
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on December 4, 2014
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2014