Under the headline, "Israel: an unsuccessful combination of growth data and inflation," US investment bank JPMorgan has issued a revised forecast for the Israeli economy, referring to the range of negative macroeconomic data that have been published recently including 1.2% GDP growth in the second quarter on an annualized basis, and the rise in the annual inflation rate to 3.2% - the highest rate since November.
JPMorgan stresses that growth in the second quarter was significantly lower than market expectations, which had expected 5.8%-5.9% and points out that range of negative indications such as the fall in investment and the sharp fall in exports in the second quarter. On the positive side, the bank stressed that private consumption remains strong.
On measures to be taken by the Bank of Israel, JPMorgan expects handling inflation to be given higher priority than encouraging growth. The bank sees the interest rate being cut by 0.25% in November and by 0.75% by mid-2025. In contrast the Bank of Israel's research department forecasts just one 0.25% rate cut over the coming year.
In the wake of recent negative macroeconomic data, JPMorgan has cut Israel's GDP growth forecast in 2024 to just 1.4% from 1.6% in its previous forecast and to 4.4% in 2025. The forecast is slightly lower than the Bank of Israel's forecast for 1.5% growth in Israel in 2024.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on August 20, 2024.
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