It has been remarked in the past that Benjamin Netanyahu decides first and weighs things up afterwards. That's the current feeling in the Knesset: that the prime minister has decided to bring the election forward, and now he's wondering whether it's the right thing to do. The latest Rafi Smith poll for "Globes" supports the approach that Likud should go for an early election, and quickly. The ruling party has stayed fairly stable since last month, at 23 projected Knesset seats, but since July it has been on a crash course. Within five months, Likud has lost eight seats.
The loss of seats for Likud is its problem. Its nightmare is the rise in the number of seats for Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home) and Naftali Bennett. According to the "Globes" poll, Habayit Hayehudi gets 16 seats, but a successful campaign could easily add another four. With every week adding to Bennett's strength, Netanyahu would be better off making a move now. To take what there is and run. Which is exactly the opposite of what the poll result recommends Yair Lapid. Not only is his Yesh Atid party cut in half, but 61% of Yesh Atid voters are not happy with Lapid's performance at the head of it. Lapid has an even worse problem. Only 6% of respondents see him as suited to be prime minister. This number, which has held steady for some time, has to be a warning light for him.
Netanyahu on the other hand has risen to a score of 33% on suitability for prime minister. Bennett is seen as not yet ripe for the job, on 12%. Labor leader Isaac Herzog can chalk up a double advance: after marking time for months, Labor has risen to 15 seats, and Herzog, following a series of attacking speeches from the Knesset podium, has overtaken Bennett on suitability for prime minister, with 15% support.
Unless there is a dramatic last minute turnaround, the Knesset could be dissolved this winter. The Jewish Nation State bill has become the litmus test of the coalition's ability to continue. What began as a leadership ploy by Netanyahu against Tzipi Livni has become a touchstone. If Netanyahu's coalition partners want to carry on, they will have to reach agreement on it. If they want to continue quarrelling, they will vote down the bill this coming Wednesday, and elections it will be.
Poll results
If an election were held today, for which party would you vote?
(Results in terms of Knesset seats, first the current poll, followed by the result of the October poll, and, in parentheses, the number of seats in the current Knesset).
Likud 23, 24 (31)
Yisrael Beitenu 11, 10 (-)
Yesh Atid 10, 9 (19)
Labor 15, 14 (15)
Habayit Hayehudi 16, 15 (12)
Shas 7, 7 (11)
United Torah Judaism 7, 7 (7)
Hatenuah 0, 4 (6)
Meretz 8, 8 (6)
New party under Moshe Kahlon 9, 9 (-)
Hadash 5, 5 (4)
Ra'am-Ta'al 3, 4 (4)
National Democratic Assembly 3, 3 (3)
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on November 27, 2014
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2014