Today, the Israel-Iran war became one of the most successful and impressive campaigns in Israel’s history, as the ceasefire came into effect. For the first time since the Six Day War of 1967, the IDF succeeded in a lightning war in neutralizing an existential threat to the State of Israel.
In twelve days, Israel succeeded in doing what it hadn’t come close to achieving in twelve years. The ballistic missiles turned from an existential threat to a threat, and the Iranian nuclear program turned from an immediate existential threat into one that, if anything remains of it, is a problem for the distant future. The Six Day War and the Israel-Iran war reflect a tradition in which Israel is capable of winning wars, but lightning wars.
This is also reflected in the terrorist threats in the Swords of Iron war. While Hamas forced the war on Israel on October 7, against Hezbollah this was not so. Israel activated the exploding pagers operation, eliminated senior Hezbollah figures, and hit terrorism infrastructures so fast that the terrorist organization was compelled to agree to a ceasefire. At the same time, the Houthi rebels exemplify the fact that without a blitzkrieg, it’s very difficult to defeat a terrorist organization.
Historic weakness of the axis of resistance
The lack of involvement of the pro-Iranian militias in the war with Israel and the US reflects both the deterrence attained against them and the historic weakness of the axis of resistance. Iran and the militias were trapped in the "spider’s web" created by Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps., who was assassinated in 2020 and didn’t live to see his "ring of fire" become a double-edged sword. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is hidden in a bunker, and for the sake of the survival of his regime had to agree to a ceasefire in which it is clear to everyone who the big loser is in this war.
For Israel, the ceasefire is an important step forward in every respect, and not just militarily. The economic challenge of war with Iran is significant, certainly if it turns into a war of attrition. The hit to strategic assets of the Ayatollahs’ regime deprived it of the option of such a war. They realized that if they were to continue with the current model, the hit to the Revolutionary Guard, and in particular to the Basij militia, could bring about a real uprising on the streets.
In the long term, the Israeli economy will gain big-time from this war, partly through the defense industry, which proved itself as one of the star performers, both in attack and defense. Not for nothing did President Macron continue with his provocations at the Paris Air Show, where it was "suddenly" decided to block access to Israeli stands.
French defense companies look with envy at how Israeli weaponry proves itself time and again on the battlefield, versus the short conflagration between India and Pakistan in which the Pakistani Air Force shot down an Indian Air Force Rafale fighter jet. Apart from that incident, it was actually the Israeli-produced equipment in use with the Indian Army that impressed.
The Islamic Republic survives; now for the hostages
Ultimately, although Israel’s defense industry is among the best in the world professionally, Israel is not a strong enough country to set the overthrow of a regime as a war aim. It is undoubtedly in Israel’s interests that the Islamic Republic should collapse, but Israel isn’t in a position to ignore world public opinion. Doing so has complicated Israel’s image in relation to the fighting in the Gaza Strip, and in the past twenty-four hours Israel’s international image in relation to the Iranian front has clearly reversed, a development compounded by the US strike on the installations at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. If Israel were to continue strikes on internal Iranian institutions rather than purely military targets, the erosion of its image would accelerate.
Now, Israel can devote its full attention to the most basic and most important aim of the Swords of Iron war, namely bringing the hostages home. Without the backing of the pro-Iranian militias, and even more so of the Iranian regime itself, Hamas remains alone. It has indeed demonstrated in the war that it has no touch of humanity and no concept of civilian status, but it may be that the final sense of isolation in which its leaders are sunk will make them reach agreement with Israel on relinquishing their rule in the Gaza Strip and releasing the hostages, in exchange for their personal survival.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on June 24, 2025.
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