The sea has recently become a global hotspot for conflict, vested interests, and economic risks. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have revealed the vulnerability of global trade, and how the maritime arena has become a power center, whether for Iran, Ukraine, or Taiwan.
Very few people in the world have a panoramic view of all these arenas, and certainly even fewer have commanded them personally. One such person is former US Chief of Naval Operations Admiral (res.) Gary Roughead. In exclusive "Globes" interview, Roughead, whose service spans the Vietnam War to Commander of the US Pacific Fleet, shares his insights into the immediate lessons learned from the battles against the Houthis ("We must not underestimate the naval capabilities of Iran's proxies"), fears that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will replicate tactics employed in the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean, and the future of the US security aid package to Israel, which is nearing its end.
The failure to combat the Houthis
During the recent war, Israel waged battle in many theaters: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen. What drew international attention, however, was when the Houthis disrupted maritime traffic in the Red Sea, leading the world’s shipping giants to divert the trade route to Europe via the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, extending the route by two weeks, and even longer.
In late December 2023, the administration of then-US President Joe Biden formed Operation Prosperity Guardian, a coalition designed to facilitate maritime traffic in the Red Sea. Various countries such as the UK and France took part, but it failed miserably. Last May, one of the first measures taken by US President Donald Trump in the Middle East was a rather surprising announcement of a ceasefire deal with the Houthis.
"The Houthis carried out naval operations that were difficult for the US and other countries," Admiral Roughead said. "In Israel, you managed to intercept missiles from different directions, including Yemen, and that's positive, but the Houthis have shown capabilities that many people didn’t expect. The attacks by Israel, the US and others were very unbalanced in terms of cost." The economic damage is reflected, for example, by the US drone losses where the Houthis claimed to have intercepted 14 MQ-9 Reapers, at a cost of about $30 million per unit. By comparison, the price of an Iranian-made Shahed-136 loitering munition is an estimated $30,000.
Roughead finds it appropriate to cite two key lessons learned. The first is not to underestimate the naval capabilities of the Iranian proxy organizations, and second, to be more realistic about of what is needed to defend and defeat. According to him, the challenges that the US encountered in the Red Sea region are also anticipated in other parts of the world.
"Not only are missile and UAV attacks expected, but the challenges will expand to new technologies above and below the sea. It requires increasing threat awareness, translating it into what should be done, and what resources are required. The countries dependent on maritime trade need to invest in systems capable of protecting against threats like those held by the Houthis. This won’t go away - it will only increase thanks to what the Iranians and the Houthis have learned."
Concerned about the Iranian threat
Iran operates two naval forces, the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, which is affiliated with the Iranian army, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. Each of these forces has different responsibilities: the Iran Navy oversees the Caspian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, i.e., the open sea, while the IRGC fleet is responsible for controlling the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 30% of the world's oil trade passes.
While these navies are an economic burden on the Iranian regime, which is already in dire straits, these have not prevented the Islamic Republic from increasing the defense budget by 200% this year to about $30.9 billion. This, despite an unstable infrastructure, an annual inflation rate of 20%-55% since 2018, and a currency that has completely collapsed with 1 million rial worth less than $1.
Roughead notes that he has paid careful attention to the IRGC Navy throughout his career. "They are the most significant threat, especially in the Gulf. Their routine tactics include attacking merchant ships and infrastructure. I’m worried they might transfer tactics to a proxy. I am particularly concerned that IRGC Navy tactics employed in the Gulf could be transferred to the Eastern Mediterranean, and create a challenging environment."
What do you think of Iran's capabilities right now?
"Iran has taken a step back right now, but I never thought they would disappear. We need to ask how they will work with others? Cooperation with Russia on UAVs can be applied to the sea. Now that the guns have gone quiet, we need to think about what we’ve learned, what they’ve learned, and who they’re working with in order to come up with new threats and tactics that we haven’t thought of. We see how in Ukraine technologies and tactics are changing at a high rate. This isn’t the time to sit back. We must pay attention and cooperate. Sometimes, we're not fast enough to internalize the necessary lessons."
"Directed energy - the weapon of the future"
Admiral (res.) Gary Roughead (74) was born in Buffalo, New York, and enlisted in the US Navy in 1973. He retired in 2011, having held a long list of posts throughout his 38 years of service. He was recently in Israel as a participant in a conference held by the Center for Maritime Policy & Strategy (MPS), headed by Prof. Shaul Chorev, (which operates within the Haifa-based technology entrepreneurship and investment center HiCenter Ventures). The conference focused on the growing threats and technologies in the underwater and seabed domains, where many countries, including Israel, maintain strategic assets.
Roughead is well aware of these issues from his various roles, including command of the US Navy’s Second Fleet, which is responsible for the Northwest Atlantic, the East Coast and the North Pole, and the Pacific Fleet, but of his most intriguing roles in the Israeli context today was his position as commander of the USS Barry - the first US destroyer equipped with the AEGIS air-defense system.
The AEGIS systems on US naval ships helped protect the skies over the State of Israel against Iranian attacks, alongside the air defense systems on the Israeli Navy's Sa'ar 6-class ships. These include the C-Dome - the naval variant of Rafael's famous Iron Dome - and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) LRAD systems for longer ranges.
"I have great appreciation for AEGIS, the first air-defense system we deployed at sea," says the former US Navy commander. "It has proven extremely effective, and its maritime deployment offers clear advantages - replicating an air-defense system at sea is often easier than doing so on land. I believe AEGIS will continue to serve the US and its partners well. Going forward, the US, Israel, Japan, and other allies need to consider how to develop more affordable interceptors."
In September, Israel’s Ministry of Defense and Rafael, the main contractor of the Iron Beam laser air defense system project, announced that trials of the system had been completed. Iron Beam will enable interceptions at a cost of a few dollars, instead of about $30,000 per Iron Dome interception. Although ships are energy-limited vessels, Roughead views energy weapons as important.
"Directed-energy weapons are a key technology for the future, especially on ships, because you don't have to worry about carrying interceptors. At present, destroyers can’t draw enough power from the ship itself. It’s possible to increase the power capacity on the ships, but that would require redesigning them. Directed-energy weapons will provide flexibility, and some new ship designs already include additional unused power. Although directed-energy weapons are not yet ready to counter missiles, the designs must incorporate greater energy capacity."
What do you think of the Israeli Navy?
" They are professional, focused and superbly equipped and I appreciate them very much. Their challenge, as many have, is whether they are big enough. When I tell them they need to grow, they tell me, 'You're a navy man, so you want more.' But when you look at Turkey and China, the numbers do have an impact. The question is what do you want to do quantitatively? If you're developing more capabilities, you may not need the numbers. If I have a ship that carries 30 interceptors and I expect to deal with 120 missiles, I’ll need four, but with directed-energy weapons I’ll have as many interceptors as I want. Therefore, we need to diversify technologies."
Who did you work with in the Israel Navy?
" I've always worked with the navy commander, but the person I've worked with in a significant way is [former Commander of the Israeli Navy] Eliezer (Chayni) Marom. We had the opportunity to work on regional issues. I admire him because he made the effort to get me more involved in the capabilities, character and culture of the Israeli Navy."
A Chinese invasion? "Not wise"
Roughead is well aware of the threats in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly the Chinese threat, due to his time as commander of the Pacific Fleet from 2005 to 2007. The area contains two strategic centers for the global economy: first and foremost, the most important shipping route of all, the Strait of Malacca, through which passes about 30% of the world's maritime trade, worth about $3.5 trillion a year. At the same time, there is Taiwan, the world's hub for advanced chips thanks to manufacturer TSMC. The global concern is that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not a question of if, but when.
"I've worked with partners like Japan and Korea, and I'm concerned about the situation in the Pacific," Roughead says. "Malacca is teeming with commerce and is also critical for energy. The Chinese are expanding their presence in this space, limiting the ability to pass through certain areas. The challenge in the region is not only military. More than 90% of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan's energy passes there. 60% of the food is imported in these countries. It's also a challenge to keep the lights on."
Is it likely that there will be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan within a year or two, as the world believes?
"I don't foresee a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in a year or two. It's a very difficult thing to do, and the Chinese understand it. China’s economic situation is not optimal, and as a result, it will be very unwise. In my opinion, their assessment is similar - they don't need a conflict in Taiwan now. I do fear that in five or six years the situation might change. The Chinese may feel more secure economically, politically, and socially. Xi Jinping can be in power for as long as he wants, so 2032 could be a reasonable target for 'Chinese reunification.'"
The question of aid
While military cooperation between Israel and the US is closer than ever, there is reason for concern on annual US military aid to Israel. The current memorandum of understanding (MoU), signed in 2016 by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then US President Barack Obama, promised Israel $3.3 billion in annual US procurement and a further $500 billion for air defense cooperation. That MoU expires in 2028, and the parties have not yet resolved the issue going forward.
In any case, a big question revolves around the conversion clause - the ability to convert part of the annual grant into shekels for use in Israeli defense industries. At the start of the agreement, the conversion clause was $815.3 million (24.7%), but it was gradually cut to direct investment to the US defense industry. This year, the conversion budget was $450.3 million (13.6%), and next year and 2027 it will drop to $250.3 million (7.5%). In 2028, the conversion clause will be zero. Given Trump's "America First" policy, it is hard to see a brighter future scenario.
"I believe the assistance will continue - it must," says Roughead. "It’s important for the US and Israel to use their own independent capabilities, while also engaging in cooperation and joint development. Israel has done a great deal, especially in air defense. Many Israeli technologies have been adopted in the US. For example, Iron Dome was the inspiration for the Golden Dome system."
The former US Navy commander concludes that even in the maritime theater, there is significant room for cooperation between the two sides. "There is tremendous opportunity for collaboration and joint production. US procurement will continue, and I hope we can succeed not only in strengthening Israel’s security, but also that of the US. It needs to be a mix: selling systems is important because it allows both sides to use the same platforms, but researchers and those responsible for the business side must work closely together. At the same time, it’s important for researchers at the university level to collaborate and develop advantages for countries like the US and Israel. We are nations driven by innovation, not ones that come to copy, but to create."
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on November 19, 2025.
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